Fantasy Theory: When to draft your QB, K, D?

Should you draft your QB early or late? And what about Defense and Kicker, is it worth it to draft a D early? And which one is better to draft first?

Where to pick your QB (statistically)

There are many often quoted wisdoms about when to draft QB, K and D; for K/D the wisdom is generally to draft late (or not at all) while for QB, some people draft early, and others draft late.

In order to figure this out, I did the following:
- I took the Fantasy leaders over 2018 from FantasyPros
From this list I deducted how much the QB1, QB10, QB25 etc scored in 2018.
- Then I took the draft ADP for 2019 (.5 PPR), again from FantasyPros.
This list tells me that for instance QB5 is picked around pick 66 (round 6), between WR31 and RB26.

I think we expect for QB5 in 2019 to have a similar expected value, to what QB5 actually was in worth in 2018. So now we can make a chart, to plot the expected value of each position against the draft.

You will notice three things in this chart:

- The curves for RB/WR/TE are more or less overlapping. They are also shaped more or less logarithmically.

- The curve for QB is mostly a straight line between pick 50 and pick 150

- the curves for DST and K are way behind.

Regarding the last point, essentially there is no reason to start thinking about DST/K before pick 160 (round 10), but it's also clear there is a clear drop for QBs between pick 50 and 150, and that drop is higher than the drop for RB/WR/TE.

This important. Clearly the curve for RB/WR/TE is flatter around pick 150 than for QB; so there it's worth it to choose a QB over the others, as the expected added value is higher.

On the other hand, it's not worth it to pick a QB in the first round, as there the expected added value is higher for the RB/WR(/TE)

So where is the sweet spot? That would be in the place where the line for QB is steeper than the curve for WRT. We can solve that mathematically, but you can also see in the chart above that it would be somewhere around pick 50, or early round 5 if you pick in a 12-team. That is way earlier than many people would draft, and for me it's an eye opener. Note that this is .5 PPR and in STD (where the player scores are a bit lower), you should draft your QB even earlier.

Where to pick your QB (part 2)

Now you might argue that the expected value is part of the answer, but the "predictability" is just as important. For instance if you can be SURE that your WR is worth more than the one of a round later, where as the variance for QBs is much higher, then that probably plays a role too. Let's take a look:

What this chart shows is the performance vs ADP in 2018 for 2 positions: RB and QB.

- essentially from pick 50-200 you do not see a big drop in value for RB; 

- in QB there is not a big drop until pick 120 (with some exceptions), and then it clearly becomes less.

Taking this into account, the advice would be to pick before round 11 in a 12-team, or essentially between round 5-10. Practically in 2019 that means the entire group between QB2 and QB20, ie between Andrew Luck and Tom Brady.

This also means that the league size matters. Adjust your strategy to your league.

4 point QBs vs 6 point QBs

Note that the scoring system for your QBs also affects where you should draft your QB. As said above, in standard WR/RB are worth a bit less than in PPR, so that makes QBs worth relatively more, and it you should draft them slightly earlier. If QBs are worth more through the points per TD, then again the differences between QBs are larger, and that means it's worth it earlier to pick a QB over a RB.

Example. Say in your league in round 5 you expect a QB to be worth 400 points for the season, and a WR 200; say in round 10 an average QB is worth 350, and a WR in round 10 should get 120 points for the season. Then an early QB plus a late WR is worth slightly less (400+120) than late QB plus early WR (200+350), so you should wait.

But now we make the QB worth more, so say your 5th round QB is worth 500 points, and the 10th round QB is worth 400. Now suddenly, the early QB plus late WR is the better bet (500+120 vs 200+400).

The same goes for making WRs worth more (PPR), this also affects the point where you should start picking QBs. Therefore, to do this properly you need to look a bit into the scoring system of your particular league.

Kicker/DST

Finally a quick word about Kickers and DST.

There seems to be a slightly better return on investment for Kickers than for DST. I pick my kicker in round 14, and DST in round 15.