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Fantasy Theory: QB Home/Away, Day of the Week, Days of Rest

We figured out that playing against a bad defense can give a 15% advantage, and against a good defense a 15% disadvantage. But how does that work for home vs away, the day of the week, and other factors?

Fantasy Theory: Play your studs (Quarterbacks)

In  https://fantasyortheory.blogspot.com/2019/09/fantasy-theory-play-your-studs-or.html  we looked at the performance of Wide Receivers vs the passing defense. How does this work for Quarterbacks?

Fantasy Theory: Play your studs, or adjust to schedule?

Should you draft a player lower because he has a tough schedule? Should you sit a player because he has a tough opponent that week?

Fantasy Theory: Does the WR1 on a bad team still have value?

Some people will defend grabbing the #1 WR on a bad team by saying "well, someone's got to ctch the balls". But is that true? Should you get that WR1 or are you better off with a WR2 on a better team?

Fantasy Theory: How does losing your QB affect the TE/RBs? The Colts without Luck

Unfortunately Andrew Luck retired. As I happen to own in various leagues both Mack and Ebron, I was curious: how does teams react when they lose their star QB. Do they rush more? Do they use their TEs more?

Fantasy Theory: 1000/1000 seasons

So far, only 2 RBs have ever achieved a "1000/1000" season, meaning 1000 yards both rushing and receiving: Roger Craig in 1985 and Marshall Faulk in 1999. Should we expect this to happen more often in the modern NFL?

Fantasy Theory: How many should you draft per position?

How many RBs should you draft if you can play only 2? How many WRs if you can play 3? How many QBs and TEs where you play 1? Can we approach this from a purely theoretical point of view?

Fantasy Theory: The Age of Players (cont: Hall Of Fame edition)

We have already established that receivers have their peak on average around age 27, and rushers a bit earlier at 26. But how do Hall of Famers compare to this? Won't they have a much longer career and a much longer peak?

Fantasy Theory: Running Back Peak Age

Now that we know receivers peak around age 25-27 , what can we say about Running Backs?

Fantasy Theory: Do teams with a bad defense pass more?

Sometimes for fantasy purposes it can be quite interesting to have a QB or WR on a bad team that gets behind a lot, and is forced to throw a lot. But is this somewhat predictable? Can we find a correlation?

Fantasy Theory: Receiver Peak Age

At what age do receivers start to decline? Can you still safely draft WRs of 30 and older?

Fantasy Theory: Plays of > 40 yards

What players (and what type of players) get plays of 40+ yards? If you play in a league that has bonus points for long plays, you may be interested in this.

Fantasy Theory: IDP Leagues (Individual Defensive Players)

As I was invited to a Dynasty/IDP league, of which I have no knowledge, I had to figure out quickly what is important, who to draft, and what to draft. This is a log of my investigations.

Fantasy Theory: Would a run-heavy system favor pass-catching TEs?

The question came up in a discussion on Mark Andrews, who is on the Ravens; and the Ravens are definitely run heavy (most rushing attempts in 2018). Would a run-heavy system favor pass-catching TEs?

Fantasy Theory: Should you trade your 1+6th round for a 2+3?

Question:  Every year I offer my 1st round pick (paired with a mid-round pick, say 6th round) to get someone's 2nd and 3rd. About half of the years, someone takes me up on the offer. I have had success when pulling this off and I have had success just drafting without doing this trade.

Fantasy Theory: Does a mobile QB benefit your RB?

On the forum, somebody claimed: " I believe an RBS "success rate" is higher with a mobile qb than with an immobile qb. But I got no evidence to back it up. Its just one of my beliefs"

Fantasy Theory: When to draft your QB, K, D?

Should you draft your QB early or late? And what about Defense and Kicker, is it worth it to draft a D early? And which one is better to draft first?

Fantasy Theory: Why do so many of my draft picks fail during the season?

This is based on a question on the Rotoworld forums ( http://forums.rotoworld.com/ ), and my answers there. The question was: "how do I improve my drafting?" In Fantasy luck plays a large part, especially in Fantasy Football, given the short season, and the high number of injuries. Even if you make all the right choices, you shouldn't expect to hit all the right results. You can compare it to a game like poker: even if you make the right choice, you may not always get the right outcome.  Say you have a good flop, you trick your opponent into going all in, you call and he turns out to have a terrible hand with only one out; but he manages to hit both the turn and the river. Did you make the right choice? Yes. Did you get the right outcome? No. It is completely reasonable to miss the draft on a relatively large number of your players. If you want to have fun, take any preseason ADP and match it against the final standings in that year - you'll be appalled a...

Fantasy Theory: Should you pick rookies?

This is based on a post on the Rotoworld forums ( http://forums.rotoworld.com/ ). My original question was: "does it make sense to draft rookies, and in which position?"  This article uses data from  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ .

Fantasy Theory: Basic Draft Strategy - How do I go about drafting?

This is based on a question on the Rotoworld forums ( http://forums.rotoworld.com/ ), and my answers there. The question was: "how do I go about drafting?" This article uses data from  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ .