This is based on a post on the Rotoworld forums (http://forums.rotoworld.com/). My original question was: "does it make sense to draft rookies, and in which position?" This article uses data from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/.
When you prepare for our NFL Fantasy draft, you will read about various rookies. I decided to investigate a bit on what you should really expect from your QB/WR/TE/RB, relative to the draft pick, or relative to the position. Can you expect a rookie TE (or whatever position) be fantasy relevant?
For each of the positions I used Pro Football Reference to select all rookie seasons of the past 10 years for each position (2009-2018). This gave me 126 QBs, 503 WRs, 234 TEs and 407 RBs
I then plotted their passing, receiving or total yards against the draft position, to see how well they performed; I also compared the yards with the average yardage that is needed in each position to be the QB1, QB2, etc. I realise that yardage doesn't mean everything, but it was a good way to organise the results.
What you can see in the chart:
- above the gold line is QB1 territory. Only 4 rookie QBs performed in that category: Luck, Newton and Winston (1st pick) and Wentz (2nd pick overall). These QBs were selected high because they were expected to produce immediately, and they did. However, note that there are other #1 picks that didn't do so well in their rookie season.
- between the yellow and blue line is QB2 territory. Another 15 guys are in this category. Mostly they were picked in the first and second rounds of the draft; the lowest pick is Dak Prescott (2016/135).
- the dotted line indicates the average yardage at that position (more accurately: between that draft pick and pick+10). So once this line dips between the QB2 line (blue), you know that on average, you shouldn't expect this rookie to be relevant. For QBs, that point comes really early.
Let's group the QBs by category: top 5, top 25, top 125 and the rest (including undrafted).
- As you can see, QBs picked in the top-5 of the draft have an average yardage that puts them in QB2 territiory; the next 20 on average are already way below that in their rookie season.
Please note that this also includes guys like Pat Mahomes, so this is not saying something about the value of these QBs for the future, just about the question whether you should target them during their rookie year in your (redraft) draft. Dynasty is obviously a different thing altogether.
Best undrafted QB was Nick Mullens (2018), if you're interested.
Therefore, it seems that rookie QBs are generally only interesting for the absolute top of the draft picks (1-3). Outside the top-5 it's probably better to stay away in redraft.
- Again the gold line indicates the WR1 region. That's only Beckham (2014) and Thomas (2016), so it is very rare for a rookie WR to be really productive in their rookie season. This is not a surprise, as it is well known that WRs need to mature in the NFL, but it is interesting to see exactly how rare it is.
- between the gold and blue lines is WR2. That's another 8 guys, so still pretty rare.
- a further 14 guys are between the green and blue line, which is WR3 territory. As you can see, most of those are in the first 2-3 rounds, but there are some late and undrafted examples, including Gordon (supplemental draft), Anthony Armstrong (2010) and Doug Baldwin (2011).
To summarise, in 10 years, 24 out of 503 rookies I found (less than 5%) were fantasy relevant in their first year. In practice btw, you have a slightly better chance of finding somebody on the wire during the season, as some WRs manage to get productive during the second half of the season. In this post though, I concentrate on the draft principles.
- Again only the top-5 WR picks are on average (somewhat) relevant, or maybe even top-10. After that, you are throwing darts, even already towards the end of the first NFL draft round.
After pick 100, it seems that almost no rookie WRs are relevant, so buyer beware.
Most people don't expect rookie TEs to be relevant, and - well, rightly so.
- Only one rookie made it into TE1 territory: Evan Engram in 2017.
- A further 15 were TE2, which surprised me. This included several late round picks or even UDFA, including George Kittle in round 5
Remember that only the TE1 section of the chart above is generally relevant, as very few leagues have more than one TE position. That means that out of the 234 Tight Ends in the period I selected, only one of those was fantasy relevant. However, a couple still were borderline relevant (generally above 550 is ok-ish).
- There were no top-5 picks over the period 2009-2018, with the highest TE being Eric Ebron (2014, pick 10).
- Even the average for the highest picks, is barely on the edge of TE2 territory, so there seem to be no "safe" rookie picks for fntasy purposes. However, there is some value for backups later on, as you can see in the first graph, again, mostly to be picked up on the wire during the season.
Summary: don't expect your rookie TE to be very relevant, unless as a backup.
As you can see in the chart, there is definite value, and it is ll over the place.
- No less than 23 rookies made it into RB1 territory (total yardage). This includes Barkley, Elliott and Martin who went over 1900 yards for the season. Howard and Morris did it late in the draft, and Lindsay made it just into this category as UDFA. That means more than 2 rookies a year get to RB1.
- Another 29 RBs were RB2 (again between gold and blue).
- a further 26 were RB3. Remember that as most leagues have at least 2 RB positions, and many these days have a flex, even RB3 is very relevant.
- In total, 53 out of 407 RBs were at least RB2, so here there is plenty value in redraft, although it's good to remember this is still only 10-15% of rookies.
- Rookie RBs selected in the top-5 can be expected to be immediately relevant. First rounders are generally still in the RB1/RB2 contention.
- Interestingly, the averages for up to pick 125 (so round 4) are still interesting, especially compared to the other positions.
- WR: invest in top 10; there are still some top-100 options. Later than that is hardly worth your time.
- TE: stay out, unless you like darts.
- RB: plenty options in the top 100, and even later you could get lucky.
So all in all, hardly surprising, but sometimes I prefer to have hard data rather than vague statements.
Leave a comment below!
When you prepare for our NFL Fantasy draft, you will read about various rookies. I decided to investigate a bit on what you should really expect from your QB/WR/TE/RB, relative to the draft pick, or relative to the position. Can you expect a rookie TE (or whatever position) be fantasy relevant?
For each of the positions I used Pro Football Reference to select all rookie seasons of the past 10 years for each position (2009-2018). This gave me 126 QBs, 503 WRs, 234 TEs and 407 RBs
I then plotted their passing, receiving or total yards against the draft position, to see how well they performed; I also compared the yards with the average yardage that is needed in each position to be the QB1, QB2, etc. I realise that yardage doesn't mean everything, but it was a good way to organise the results.
1. Quarterbacks
The below is a plot of all Quarterbacks drafted over the 10 year period, and the number of yards they had in their first season.
- above the gold line is QB1 territory. Only 4 rookie QBs performed in that category: Luck, Newton and Winston (1st pick) and Wentz (2nd pick overall). These QBs were selected high because they were expected to produce immediately, and they did. However, note that there are other #1 picks that didn't do so well in their rookie season.
- between the yellow and blue line is QB2 territory. Another 15 guys are in this category. Mostly they were picked in the first and second rounds of the draft; the lowest pick is Dak Prescott (2016/135).
- the dotted line indicates the average yardage at that position (more accurately: between that draft pick and pick+10). So once this line dips between the QB2 line (blue), you know that on average, you shouldn't expect this rookie to be relevant. For QBs, that point comes really early.
Let's group the QBs by category: top 5, top 25, top 125 and the rest (including undrafted).
- As you can see, QBs picked in the top-5 of the draft have an average yardage that puts them in QB2 territiory; the next 20 on average are already way below that in their rookie season.
Please note that this also includes guys like Pat Mahomes, so this is not saying something about the value of these QBs for the future, just about the question whether you should target them during their rookie year in your (redraft) draft. Dynasty is obviously a different thing altogether.
Best undrafted QB was Nick Mullens (2018), if you're interested.
Therefore, it seems that rookie QBs are generally only interesting for the absolute top of the draft picks (1-3). Outside the top-5 it's probably better to stay away in redraft.
2. Wide Receivers
- Again the gold line indicates the WR1 region. That's only Beckham (2014) and Thomas (2016), so it is very rare for a rookie WR to be really productive in their rookie season. This is not a surprise, as it is well known that WRs need to mature in the NFL, but it is interesting to see exactly how rare it is.
- between the gold and blue lines is WR2. That's another 8 guys, so still pretty rare.
- a further 14 guys are between the green and blue line, which is WR3 territory. As you can see, most of those are in the first 2-3 rounds, but there are some late and undrafted examples, including Gordon (supplemental draft), Anthony Armstrong (2010) and Doug Baldwin (2011).
To summarise, in 10 years, 24 out of 503 rookies I found (less than 5%) were fantasy relevant in their first year. In practice btw, you have a slightly better chance of finding somebody on the wire during the season, as some WRs manage to get productive during the second half of the season. In this post though, I concentrate on the draft principles.
- Again only the top-5 WR picks are on average (somewhat) relevant, or maybe even top-10. After that, you are throwing darts, even already towards the end of the first NFL draft round.
After pick 100, it seems that almost no rookie WRs are relevant, so buyer beware.
3. Tight Ends
Most people don't expect rookie TEs to be relevant, and - well, rightly so.
- Only one rookie made it into TE1 territory: Evan Engram in 2017.
- A further 15 were TE2, which surprised me. This included several late round picks or even UDFA, including George Kittle in round 5
Remember that only the TE1 section of the chart above is generally relevant, as very few leagues have more than one TE position. That means that out of the 234 Tight Ends in the period I selected, only one of those was fantasy relevant. However, a couple still were borderline relevant (generally above 550 is ok-ish).
- There were no top-5 picks over the period 2009-2018, with the highest TE being Eric Ebron (2014, pick 10).
- Even the average for the highest picks, is barely on the edge of TE2 territory, so there seem to be no "safe" rookie picks for fntasy purposes. However, there is some value for backups later on, as you can see in the first graph, again, mostly to be picked up on the wire during the season.
Summary: don't expect your rookie TE to be very relevant, unless as a backup.
4. Running Backs
This is where I expected the rookies to shine, and yes, the common knowledge is correct:
As you can see in the chart, there is definite value, and it is ll over the place.
- No less than 23 rookies made it into RB1 territory (total yardage). This includes Barkley, Elliott and Martin who went over 1900 yards for the season. Howard and Morris did it late in the draft, and Lindsay made it just into this category as UDFA. That means more than 2 rookies a year get to RB1.
- Another 29 RBs were RB2 (again between gold and blue).
- a further 26 were RB3. Remember that as most leagues have at least 2 RB positions, and many these days have a flex, even RB3 is very relevant.
- In total, 53 out of 407 RBs were at least RB2, so here there is plenty value in redraft, although it's good to remember this is still only 10-15% of rookies.
- Rookie RBs selected in the top-5 can be expected to be immediately relevant. First rounders are generally still in the RB1/RB2 contention.
- Interestingly, the averages for up to pick 125 (so round 4) are still interesting, especially compared to the other positions.
5. Summary
- QB: invest only in the top 3; the top-100 has some backups though (meaning: the first 100 NFL draft picks).- WR: invest in top 10; there are still some top-100 options. Later than that is hardly worth your time.
- TE: stay out, unless you like darts.
- RB: plenty options in the top 100, and even later you could get lucky.
So all in all, hardly surprising, but sometimes I prefer to have hard data rather than vague statements.
Leave a comment below!
Comments
Post a Comment