Fantasy Theory: Why do so many of my draft picks fail during the season?

This is based on a question on the Rotoworld forums (http://forums.rotoworld.com/), and my answers there. The question was: "how do I improve my drafting?"

In Fantasy luck plays a large part, especially in Fantasy Football, given the short season, and the high number of injuries. Even if you make all the right choices, you shouldn't expect to hit all the right results.

You can compare it to a game like poker: even if you make the right choice, you may not always get the right outcome. 

Say you have a good flop, you trick your opponent into going all in, you call and he turns out to have a terrible hand with only one out; but he manages to hit both the turn and the river. Did you make the right choice? Yes. Did you get the right outcome? No.

It is completely reasonable to miss the draft on a relatively large number of your players. If you want to have fun, take any preseason ADP and match it against the final standings in that year - you'll be appalled at how many misses there are.

But on average, the ADP still outperforms a random draft. And it is still possible to outperform the ADP on average, if you draft smart; just don't expect to do 100%, but say 60%. In fact, a smart draft strategy should assume that you will have 40% misses, and cover for those.

Of course, drafting well is only 40% of your season. You can still make up for a lot by managing your team well.

I don't think there is a right and wrong, or black a white, just shades of more right and shades of more wrong. Try to take the right sort of decisions. Don't expect to get every pick; don't expect to win every hand or every game or every Championship. A good fantasy player will still lose a lot; but you should consistently get to say 70% of your play-offs. Never forget that our hobby is mostly a betting game; but even if you have a 51% chance on your bet, you should come out on top on average.

Don't go too much for other people's opinions. Don't follow; lead. Form your own opinions. Listen to others, listen to criticism, but in the end, it's your decision that will make you better.

I personally prefer not to be too dogmatic. There are few absolute truths in fantasy. In fact, enter many leagues, and try different strategies. Once in a while, do the opposite. Learn. 


Again, just remember you don't need to be 100% right all the time. Just try to get 51% a lot of times, and you'll be successful on average.